Estimation of Treatment Effects of the One-Child Policy Using Self-Reported Information


This paper proposes a novel method to identify the One-Child Policy’s impact on couples’ childbearing using self-reported survey measures. We use couples’ pre-policy ideal number of children together with the answers in the post-policy period to back out the counterfactual number of children without the One-Child Policy. Findings indicate a significant average re- duction of 0.2714 children per couple in 2014 due to the policy. Variations in policy effects are explored across educational, urban/rural, and occupational groups, with highly educated urban women in government jobs experiencing the most pronounced impact. Sub-region analysis suggests significant policy stringency differences among provinces.

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